What Is The Difference Between A Fad And A Trend?

A few years back I crowdsourced a presentation - curating a bunch of individual slides contributed by the readers of this blog into a talk about community that I then gave at a conference. It was a wonderfully positive (albeit a little risky) experience.

I've been asked to speak at Squared this week. Squared is a Google-led initiative (full disclosure: Google is a client of mine) in partnership with Hyper Island and the IPA designed to address the talent shortage in digital marketing in our industry (a subject I think is critical). It's described as 'an ambitious and transformative programme' to take graduates at the start of their advertising and media careers through an intensive three-month education designed to accelerate digital capabilities. There's some amazing people involved including Sir John Hegarty and Jeremy Bullmore. Part of it is about education, part is about inspiration, part is about working on real-world projects, and gaining some good experience of 'creative, debate-driven collaboration'. I think its a great initiative (check out some of the tweets from the participants). The programme isn't limited by a fixed structure, and it provides a framework for ongoing support and discussion, as well as an invaluable peer network that will no doubt serve them well as they progress in their careers.

So on Tuesday, I shall be speaking to an audience of 80+ graduates from almost 30 agencies, each with 0-6 months experience in the industry. I shall be talking about content, agility, and the intersection of business, media, and technology. And whilst I'm not planning on crowdsourcing the presentation this time, I do think its a wonderful opportunity to pass on some wisdom from some truly smart people in the industry. 

One of the truly challenging things right now I think is the ability to identify amongst all the noise (and spikes of attention) the trends and shifts that are really important - the ones that mean you need to adapt your strategy - the ones that are really going to change things and make an impact. I think knowledge and skill in this area will be a hugely valuable thing in the years to come, so I'd like to ask for some contributions that I might pass on to the graduates that might help them identify the difference between what's a fad, and what's a real trend to take notice of. To make it pithy, let's try and keep it to less than 140 characters, and I'll aim to capture feedback I get and also include it in the deck on Tuesday.

As a starter, I really like this quote from Henry Jenkins (which was on the slide that Faris contributed to the crowdsourced presentation): "Our focus should not be on emerging technologies but on emerging cultural practices".

You can leave a comment here, or email me, or tweet me your answer before Tuesday PM. So (ideally in 140 characters or less):

How do we tell the difference between a fad and a disruption or trend that really matters?

Contributions/answers greatly appreciated.

Comments

[Dan Thornton]

I'll have to think to top the Clay Shirky quote I contributed to that crowdsourced presentation back in the day. Watch young mothers, not geeks - they don't have time for anything that isn't useful.

Of course, Pinterest may be the exception to that rule...

[neilperkin]

Ah yes of-course - that's a good prompt. Thanks Dan

[Ben Malbon]

I think we're obsessed with the short term, and what might be called 'fads', at the expense of the long term view (or what might be called 'trends'). It's like weather versus climate.

Larry Page frames this in a simple way that’s makes sense to me (and he borrows from Amara’s Law in doing so):

'People tend to dramatically overestimate the effects of technology over the next 12 months but dramatically underestimate the effects of technology over the next 5 years.'

I think we can all learn from that.

[Dino]

This might be a little wonky, but if we think of fads as the bright shiny objects that often distract from deeper, underlying shifts in behaviour, you can do worse than William Gibson's "the future's already here, it's just not evenly distributed" quote.

Which I take to mean that the seeds of what is to come, and that which is enduring, already exist in more subtle, less flashy ways, we just need to become more attuned to identifying them.

See, told you it was going to be wonky.

[MicroSourcing]

It's a great quote that makes a clear distinction between fads and trends. Technologies all the time, while cultural practices are more likely to stick. There was a time when social media was dismissed as a fad, another Internet bubble, but it continues to gain traction because it's become embedded in culture.

[neilperkin]

@Ben excellent, thanks for the contribution. That's really useful
@Dino likewise, great contribution, thanks

[James Caig]

To tell the difference (the 'how' in your question), you need reference points. It's not about futurology. It's about understanding now so that developments can be evaluated in context. Preparing for improvisation, if you will.

Three simple techniques.

1) Obsess about people (all kinds) and why they do what they do. This way you'll know what's valuable.

2) Read, insatiably. Business & Tech, not just Marketing. Short & long, new and old - find a community of sources. This way you'll know what's interesting.

3) Play with new stuff. Share and talk about it. This way you'll know what's good.

Sorry, Neil, way over 140 characters!

[Phil Adams]

Fads are elastic, in that the world returns, unchanged, to its original position once they've run their course.

Trends are plastic, in that the world is irrevocably changed by them.

So, in 140 characters or less, "Fads are elastic, trends are plastic."

Or...

Fads inform campaigns, trends inform business models.

[Scott Crawford]

"Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion." Jack Kerouac

So even Kerouac lumped them together. Motor on.

[Holycow]

Good one Neil. My thoughts are:

A fad is a discernible cultural effect and a trend is usually the underlying cause.

Secondly, a trend is statistically significant whereas a fad often isn't.

And finally, fads happen at a micro level whereas the trend is detectable at a macro level.

So I will tweet one of them to privately in 140 characters.

Hope this is useful.

Let me know how you get on.

Best

M

[Rob]

Don't be social - or technological - be meaningful.

That sums up everything wrong - and right - with the industry for me, but then I am a simple fellow.

[neilperkin]

Thanks everyone - some brilliant responses here so really appreciate everyone taking the time to think about this. I'll be collating all the contributions I've had and using them with the grads tomorrow, and then I'll write up a blog post to share them all.
Brilliant.

[Gavin Heaton]

Trends veer from the edge towards the centre (of culture, politics, society) while fads teeter on the edge, falling into obscurity.

[Will]

Hey Neil.

One for you:

A fad's what several people say they do in the short term. A trend's what people are actually doing in the long term.

[neilperkin]

Thanks for the contributions both. Write up up soon